Serbia: the colored counter-revolution has failed (for the time being)
The modern lumpenproletariat is at it again! This time in Serbia.
As we sat down to Christmas Eve dinner in Poland to celebrate the supposed anniversary of Jesus Christ's birth, a shambles was brewing in Serbia. It should come as no surprise that it was caused by a crowd of passionate professional citizens concerned about democracy and the rule of law who had gathered in and around a number of so called non-governmental organizations.
The main player in the most recent edition of the colored counter-revolution was revealed to be an umbrella organization called Serbia Against Violence, which is formally a coalition of six different parties. Of course, it is impossible to describe all of these organizations, their histories, or their profiles here, but suffice it to note the names (especially if one is even vaguely familiar with the recent political history of the former Eastern Bloc countries) that the parties comprising or supporting this coalition which are as follows: Democratic Party, Ecological Uprising, Direction Europe, Free Citizens Movement, Freedom and Justice Party, and so on. Those interested in the Polish political scene should be aware that one of the wings of this political umbrella is a Serbian party called... Together (similar to the Polish "Razem"). One can safely assume that the obsession with clichés such as democracy, human rights, European values and the West in general is just as insane as it is among our Polish leftists. Only the Serbian “Togetherites” identify as an environmental movement.
There's something endearing about this: Poland has produced apologists for imperialism with social justice traits, while Serbians are more concerned about the environment.
On the night of December 24-25, several thousand people demonstrated in downtown Belgrade, which escalated into small-scale rioting and clashes with police. The gathering was forcibly dispersed, and 35 demonstrators were arrested. For the time being, it is safe to state that Serbia's colored counter-revolution has failed. Although civic-democratic activists have set up tents and are still holding out, the situation is clearly becoming more comical than anything else.
The immediate context of the current “popular unrest” in Belgrade is the recently held early elections, which the “democratic opposition” has shockingly lost, much to the surprise of its own and its Western partners. Faced with such developments, professional citizens, along with individual observers sent by the OSCE, went into a frenzy, claiming that rigging had occurred. However, to fully comprehend the circumstances that led to the attempted color counter-revolution, one must go back to the early summer of 2023.
In May last year, there were several shootings at public schools in Belgrade, Smederevo, Dubon, and Šepšinj. These events caused understandable public outrage, which was manifested, among other things, through spontaneous mass mourning demonstrations. Some of the protests eventually took on a political tone, with calls for the government to take drastic measures to stem what appeared to be a rising tide of violence and death. The so-called “civil society” then demonstrated its counter-revolutionary vigilance, giving the demonstrations an increasingly anti-government tone through its agents. The professional cadre exposition of civil society, well trained and equipped, quickly dominated the spontaneous movement, and the mournful or expiatory tone morphed into demands for the resignation of the heads of the Serbian police, secret service, interior minister, and, finally, the prime minister, president, and entire government. The tension grew, public opinion became confused, and the “civil society” acted quickly and aggressively. Finally, the atmosphere of political change was created. To relieve the pressure, Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vučić, has agreed to hold early elections assuming his victory. Unfortunately for him and his supporters, the “democratic opposition” has made similar assumptions, though it is unclear on what basis, as there are no reliable polls indicating a favorable outcome for it.
The Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) of President Aleksandar Vučić won a landslide victory, receiving more than 46% of the vote, while the Serbia Against Violence (SPN) coalition received only 23%.
The protesters chuckled because they had been sparked by isolated reports from a few (literally) OSCE-affiliated observers who publicly claimed “serious irregularities” and “procedural lapses.” However, no credible evidence of any incidents that could have influenced the outcome of the elections has been presented. The Center for Research, Transparency, and Accountability (CRTA), which bills itself as an independent and impartial civil society organization and is treated as such by the media, quickly supported OSCE observers who detected a climate of a coup in the making. A quick glance at this structure's official website clarifies its profile. The National Endowment for Democracy and USAID, the mother lode of colored counterrevolutions around the world, are among its sponsors and backers. Add to that Western embassies, but also the Czech Foreign Ministry, whose president is currently a former junior NATO functionary, the government of the Duchy of Luxembourg, German and Swiss foundations, and — the cherry on top — the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.
On such fertile ground, the SNP nearly officially declared the start of a colorful counter-revolution and sent a letter to various EU institutions and member governments stating that it does not recognize the election result. A howl and lament was immediately raised in the EU — everything was going according to plan. It was time to make a change.
On Sunday, December 24, the opposition formed a somewhat comedic force and attempted to storm some state and local government institutions in Belgrade. According to some reports, demonstrations in the Serbian capital's center that day drew between two and five thousand people; in other words, they were not particularly large gatherings for a metropolitan area of more than two million people. According to media reports, a group of 100 to 300 protesters attempted to storm the City Council headquarters. They smashed windows and tried to break down the front door with paving stones and uprooted road signs. Beer cans were thrown at police, and city surveillance cameras were also destroyed.
The presence of police inside the building, which the demonstrators apparently did not expect, thwarted the group's plans. They were unable to force their way through the doors because officers armed with tear gas spray, as well as the offices behind the broken windows, were waiting just behind them. After midnight, when the majority of demonstrators went home, the most persistent were dispersed, and 35 people were arrested.
Later, in a speech to the nation, Vučić emphasized that the authorities were aware of the “colored revolution” preparations and called an emergency meeting of the National Security Council; its head, also Foreign Minister Ivica Dačić, publicly declared that the situation “after the coup attempt” was “stable.”
“After realizing that the plans [to seize power - ed. note] could not be implemented peacefully and calmly in Belgrade, the opposition began protests, which are supported and encouraged from the outside [...] I can't go into specifics because this is a private conversation with private information, but I have irrefutable evidence that there is incitement coming from the West,” Vučić stated.
According to Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabić, “Russian intelligence had information about what was supposed to have happened last evening and provided it to us.”
“The attempts by the West to collectively aggravate the situation [in Serbia - ed. note], using Maydan-style putsch techniques, are obvious,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. “The only possible response is to respect the letter and spirit of the country's constitution, as well as the Serbian people's choice,” she added.
Many commentators also believe that the Serbian government did not require any principled support from the Russians in the wake of the December 24 and 25 excesses. The government's readiness, as well as the police's determination and loyalty, have proven consistent. For the time being, the pro-Western opposition exhibits weakness and superficiality, as well as a lack of any grounding in Serbian public opinion. This lack of support extends even to Belgrade, where the most powerful factions of opposition movements tend to congregate.
The opposition has now decided to shut down the streets and establish a tent city in downtown Belgrade. Several dozens of students gathered in front of the Ministry of State Administration and Local Self-Government today and blocked traffic at the intersection of Knez Miloš and Birčaninov streets over the last few days. Another group of students arrived moments later and began erecting tents at the intersection, along with a generator, speakers, blankets, and assembly tables. Flags and banners bearing the words Euromaidan-Serbia were also seen. The nervous anticipation for Victoria Neuland to begin handing out cookies has clearly begun.
Against the backdrop of unabated, but meager, protests, it became necessary to strengthen the SNP narrative. As a result, the production of heroes began. It was Dmitrije Radovanović, a first-year student at Belgrade University, who was arrested shortly after midnight on December 25 for his involvement in a brawl near the city parliament. Despite being under house arrest in his dorm room, he was immediately identified as a political prisoner and a symbol of the “regime's” repression. When this information became widely known, the narrative was altered, and a lament was launched about how the “regime”does not allow him to visit his family in Kragujevac, where he is from, and that relatives and friends are concerned about his safety.
This figure is further complicated by the fact that on his social media, this democratic, civic-minded, and law-abiding activist displays insignia associated with a certain Dmitrije Ljotić, a historical World War II military leader whose unit collaborated with the Nazis. As in Ukraine, the new stage wisdom is being applied in Serbia: we are now fighting for democracy under the banner of the hakenkreuz and other related symbols. The liberal community's ability to conceptualize this in conjunction with freedom and democracy represents an incomprehensible metaphysical phenomenon.
Finally, a question must be raised about the Serbian authorities' reactions, which are hyper-moderate in the face of an apparent coup attempt. Either the opposition is even weaker than it appears, and Vui is arresting them, or they are still naively hoping for an agreement with the West and are thus attempting to demonstrate restraint. If the latter is true, he will be carted off to the scaffold in a wheelbarrow with no mercy. Although one must do justice to the Serbian president by emphasizing that a “Maydan” to eliminate him is less likely, because he is not only richer than Yanukovich by experience (not least of 2014), but also — and this should not be underestimated — much more intelligent. We'll see if this is enough.