Tabloid tactic: The EU's new war drum in the midst of social and economic collapse
The ruling classes in the West have turned to tabloids as their megaphones, romanticizing war and fanning the flames of conflict, pushing public emotional exploitation to unprecedented levels.
According to the venerable sheets of the German tabloid Bild, which bravely revealed papers allegedly from the Bundeswehr on January 15th, the summer of 2025 could see the start of a major war. However, in an equally enigmatic and comedic twist, EU military and civilian authorities later chimed in, implying that these revelations could simply be “options for unfolding events,” “fictional scenarios,” or “probable futures.” The tradition of fear-mongering appears to have taken a quaint turn, moving from the columns of The New York Times and The Washington Post to a new, albeit less august, home.
Could this be the media's latest ploy to keep the public on their toes, or is it a subtle admission that when it comes to selling the narrative of impending doom, any port — in this case, tabloid — will suffice in the face of skepticism?
The scenarios presented to us, which resemble a cheap late-night horror-comedy sketch rather than a strategic military forecast, have somehow risen to the forefront of our current media narrative. Allow me to examine these prophecies in your behalf.
First up, Russia, seems to be accused of an overly ambitious New Year's resolution as it reportedly plans to conscript an additional 200,000 souls by February 2024. Spring, traditionally a time of renewal and growth, will allegedly see Russian forces grind down the Ukrainian army, followed by a summer of staging cyber havoc across the Baltic states. Meanwhile, the Baltic States will maintain or even intensify their harshly discriminatory policies against the Russian-speaking population (that I’m totally prepared to believe!), laying the groundwork for a dramatic October in which some of the newly mobilized troops will be redeployed to Kaliningrad to kick off a border conflict in the Suwałki Corridor (sometimes referred to as Suwalski Gap) on Polish territory. The Russians are expected to capture the corridor and gain direct ground access to the Kaliningrad area.
A person with a basic understanding of the region's geography and the military force required to carry out such an operation can only dismiss these speculations as fantasies of a plot twist worthy of a Hollywood production rather than political analysis.
This screenplay culminates in a 2014 scenario that occurred in Ukraine, but this time it is a rerun on NATO soil, courtesy of a growing Russo-Belarusian alliance. That would set off NATO's big move in May 2025, with 300,000 troops, including 30,000 Germans, rushing to the pact's eastern flank, Poland.
I really can't help but marvel at the audacity of this story, or, more accurately, the creative desperation that appears to fuel these tabloid stories. Is this the media's attempt at a geopolitical thriller, or have the distinctions between strategic analysis and satire become irreversibly blurred?
When prodded for a solid confirmation or outright denial of the Bild bombshell, a spokesperson for the German Ministry of Defense artfully dodged the question, offering only an oblique nod to the “serious consideration” of possible threats. “Regardless, we analyze current security policy challenges. These include a threat from Russia. This analysis is reflected, for example, in exercises or planning,” the Bundeswehr representative speculated, leaving us to wonder where the line between reality, fantasizing about war, romanticizing a major military conflict with Russia, and rehearsal is.
In a twist appropriate for the final act of this crappy thriller, NATO's Director of Strategic Communications, Janis Sarts, later waltzed in to clarify that the document in question was nothing more than a “training scenario.” In other words, a fabricated tableau intended to test the Alliance's mettle.
In the grand theater of geopolitics, the threat of an imminent Russian assault on Europe is hardly a novel plot point; it feels like a rerun of an old episode. To see the broader narrative arc, simply step out of the media-imposed amnesia that pretends history reset 15 minutes ago, or no later than February 2022.
Now, I hate to make this parallel! In all honesty, analogies and allusions to World War II, particularly to a particular Austrian gentleman who held a substantial position during the Weimar Republic and the Third Reich, irritate me considerably. However, in this particular context, the comparison is almost brutally inevitable and hard to ignore. This clamor about preparing for a showdown with Russia eerily echoes the Third Reich's political scripts, which launched its own preemptive campaign under the guise of a Soviet threat — a specter of aggression masterfully conjured and inflated by propaganda.
In this contemplative setting, where parallels to the past cast long shadows, one must ask: who should really be on guard here?
Given the lessons learned throughout history, Russia may actually have more cause for concern. The narrative threads that run through the European media tapestry could be the West's cryptic semaphore, signaling a readiness to engage rather than defend.
Therefore, it might be actually advisable for Russia to perceive these tabloid stories not merely as pulp fiction, but rather as possible precursors to authentic strategies.
Joe Biden continues to beat the war drums with the fervor of a preacher warning of an impending apocalypse, and, unsurprisingly, all the clowns and parrots from the most obsessively pro-American administrations — Baltic states taking the lead, but far from alone — echo his sentiments. Sweden was recently handed a script to begin war rehearsals, causing such a frenzy that official channels were forced to broadcast calming lullabies to calm the rattled public.
Poland, not to be outdone in this tragicomedy, had its turn in the spotlight. Just as I was writing my thoughts, the Polish Minister of Defense declared in the pages of SuperExpress — a publication not exactly known for its sober analysis — that Poland is “prepared for every scenario.” This statement, which may have been intended to boost morale, ended up in Bild, where it led to an article about Poland's war preparations. The irony! Here we are, witnessing a parade of absurdities as grave national security issues are bandied about in the tabloids, reducing the solemn to a sideshow.
It is an embarrassment, a farce disguised as vigilance!
On the flip side of the coin, the Russian narrative seems to stride a different path, if we are to lend an ear for example to Andrei Klintsevich, head of the Center for Military-Political Conflict Research. (A person who's certainly more familiar with Moscow's plans than German or Polish tabloids!)
According to Klintsevich, “Russia does indeed plan large-scale offensive operations in the special military operation zone [...] Russia has not abandoned the goals of its special operation, and we are simply moving forward. It's no secret that the Russian army has already enlisted nearly 500,000 volunteers.” However, he also said, contrary to the drumbeats of mobilization and expansion heard in the West, that "the Russian Federation has categorically denied any plans to mobilize. Furthermore, the idea of Russia opening a new front in Europe or invading the Baltic states" and he dismissed this concept as lacking "basic logical justification."
“First of all, these are NATO countries. We understand that a direct military conflict between Russia and NATO would result in the use of nuclear weapons [...] If NATO suddenly attempts to instigate a conflict and blockade Kaliningrad from all sides, Russia will, of course, militarily unblock the region” — Klintsevich concluded.
Now let's turn to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who offers a cynically pragmatic take on the unfolding drama, implying that EU politicians are making a concerted effort to paint a vivid, textured picture of the enemy. According to Peskov, this narrative construction serves two purposes: it rationalizes the increase in defense spending while also playing into the larger geopolitical theater. “They need to continue to construct an image of the enemy […] in order to justify the increase in spending,” Peskov said, criticizing the EU's recent decision to allocate a significant €50 billion to Ukraine over the next four years.
Finally, in a masterclass in diversion, the escalation of media hysteria surrounding a potential conflict with Russia serves as a smokescreen, shielding the European Union's internal quandaries from public scrutiny. As the year 2024 progresses, the media landscape has become increasingly saturated with war imagery, calls for preparedness, and demands for increased financial investments in defense. However, a closer look reveals a stagnant status quo on the Ukrainian front, an unchanged Russian foreign policy, and a stable NATO posture, leaving one rather curious about what triggered this sudden increase in bellicose rhetoric.
Beneath the veneer of external threats lies a mosaic of internal strife: Hungary's defiant defense of its sovereignty against Brussels' edicts, resounding protests by farmers and truckers in France, Poland, and Slovakia, the unsettling rise of far-right factions, and the relentless reduction of social safety nets in the face of soaring energy prices and industrial flight to more favorable shores. In the midst of this turmoil, the political elite appears to be fixated on inflating military budgets, a desperate maneuver to divert attention away from the EU's spiraling socioeconomic vortex.
This narrative manipulation, far from novel, is set to intensify as the European Parliament elections approach, casting a long shadow over incumbents hampered by the EU's precarious state. Politicians appear willing to risk the public's attention on the specter of war in order to curry favor with transnational corporate behemoths and secure electoral war chests, while ignoring pressing domestic issues. As history suggests, this orchestration of public consciousness may not be the last, emphasizing the importance of voter vigilance and discernment in the face of political theatrics and strategic distractions.
I believe tabloids were a frequent weapon also in the cold war of the 50s. So they have used it before. And found it workable.
What should the miserable EU politicians, bureaucrats and businessmen do? They are intensely unpopular, after 30-40 years of misruling the economy and the society in general, and need a foreign enemy to direct people's wrath at. It is an old trick. One can hope that the not-yet-formed opposition can make them seem as ridiculous as they are.
Personally, I think they will be perfectly contented with a cold war, enlivened now and then by a little hot war in the periphery (Palestine, perhaps Iran). They know fucking well that a hot war between great powers would end the human civilization. But they are stupid enough to believe they can go on with brinkmanship forever.