Polish politics of panic: How emotional manipulation masks near total policy paralysis
In the shadow of geopolitical unrest, Poland finds itself engulfed in an orchestrated wave of public fear, a smokescreen for the lack of a coherent foreign policy and internal political turmoil.
It's unsurprising, but deeply unsettling, to see Poland in a state of profound mental disarray since the outbreak of the Ukrainian conflict. The public discourse is marred by an overwhelming emotional upheaval, rendering the nation's collective psyche incapable of rational responses, not only to the war in Ukraine or Russia's changing global stance, but also to the broader spectrum of international relations.
This national sentiment is not a passing fad; it is a deep-seated emotional oscillation that borders on neurotic reactions, teetering on the brink of anxiety and delusions. Such states of mind no longer require therapeutic intervention, but rather the attention of psychiatric professionals. The spectacle unfolding is nothing short of insane.
Persisting in this emotionally charged environment is undeniably exhausting. These emotional storms eventually subside after reaching a certain crescendo. However, this is precisely when the media syndicates reignite the flames of fear and hysteria, plunging the Polish people into yet another cycle of anxious frenzy.
This portrayal not only highlights the internal turmoil, but also emphasizes the critical role media plays in shaping, and frequently exacerbating, the national psyche. It's a cycle of emotional upheaval fueled by external narratives, with almost no room for calm and rational discussion. It's emotional exploitation.
Defense Minister “considers every scenario” while the public collapses emotionally
Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, Poland's newly appointed Defense Minister, has recently caused significant controversy. As a political appointee with no military background and the leader of the Polish People's Party, a group mostly known for political corruption, clientelism and cronyism, Kosiniak-Kamysz's recent statements have sparked a new wave of concern in the nation as a whole.
In response to questions about a potential Russian assault on Poland, the Defense Minister made a startling remark in an interview with the major Polish tabloid newspaper SuperExpress, saying:
“I consider every scenario, and I take the worst-case scenarios very seriously.”
This statement, rather than being a prudent expression of vigilance, appears to be a cunning tactic to sow panic, ostensibly to justify further subjugation of Poland by both the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany. This development deserves its own commentary.
However, it is important to note that Poland only last week agreed to the establishment of “military Schengen.”1 This is a significant step that indicates a deeper alignment of Polish foreign and military policies with Berlin, implying a significant shift in the country's geopolitical stance.
Foreign non-policy and EU-supported authoritarianism
It is also worth noting that the trend of subordination is not a new phenomenon. Since 1989, Poland has rarely pursued an independent foreign policy, instead focusing on appeasing new hegemonic powers and anticipating their wishes. However, in light of the ongoing war and tectonic shifts in global geopolitics, the agreement to “military Schengen” is a significant event that deserves attention.
Poland is currently navigating rather turbulent waters, marked by significant internal strife under Donald Tusk's leadership, which is supported by the European Union. The government's extremely heavy-handed approach has thrown the country into a quagmire of legal, constitutional, political, and institutional crises, as detailed in an article I wrote over a week ago.
Basically, Tusk has used profoundly authoritarian methods to try to bring down his political opponents, especially the Law and Justice (PiS) party, which ruled Poland from 2015 to 2023 and is a nationalist and fundamentalist Catholic gang. This strategy sought to appease Tusk's base, which had been promised a festival of “harsh settlements” with the so-called “dictatorial” PiS “regime” during last year's election campaign. The government's actions, which have been described by many as reckless and include the use of police, security companies, and parliamentary resolutions, have resulted in Poland's worst political crisis since the 1980s.
Unfortunately, the state takeover is moving at a slow and ineffective pace. As a result, Tusk finds the strategy of capitalizing on fears of a Russian invasion particularly effective. He has attempted to divert public attention away from these issues by instilling unfounded patriotism and fearmongering about a supposed Russian threat from the east, a ridiculous and completely unconvincing narrative. It is worth noting that Poland shares a border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad in the north!
Given these considerations, Tusk and Kosiniak-Kamysz's assertions are utterly illogical and devoid of coherent argumentation. Russia could theoretically attack Poland from this direction, bypassing Ukraine. Not to mention Belarus, which has a much longer border with Poland and whose military, territory, and resources could easily be used by Russia in an instance of such an invasion. However, no such attack has been observed, and there is no evidence that Russia has any such plans or intentions. The narrative of a Russian menace is pure propagandistic fearmongering.
In other words, if Russia truly intended to launch an all-out military assault on Poland, it would not need to finish off Ukraine first — a glance at the map would suffice to determine this.
Covering up political failures
It could be argued that Tusk spread this falsehood to divert attention away from Poland's political crisis, while Kosiniak-Kamysz revives it to justify last week's “military Schengen” agreement. This agreement allows German troops to freely move to and from Poland and to be stationed there for the first time since World War II, ostensibly to counter the non-existent Russian threat of invasion.
In a significant departure from its previous foreign policy stance, Poland, led by Donald Tusk, appears to be carving out a new geostrategic role that primarily supports Germany's lead in the alleged containment of Russia in Central Europe. This pivot indicates a shift away from Poland's ambitions of acting as an independent regional influencer, with Warsaw now playing a supporting role in Berlin's strategies.
Berlin is likely to allow Warsaw to continue with its planned military investment programs. However, these initiatives will be expected to align more closely with German interests, potentially at the expense of American influence, and will not prioritize Polish autonomy (or more like pretense thereof.) This rebalancing of Poland's military investments reflects a nuanced realignment within the European security framework, in which Warsaw's role should coming to be seen by many analysts as auxiliary to Berlin's goals.
Poland's participation in an expanded “military Schengen” initiative, which could extend to Estonia, reflects Warsaw's clearly adjunct status. Rather than representing an independent pillar of influence in Central Europe, Poland is positioned as a conduit for German interests. This is in stark contrast to the Law and Justice (PiS) party's previous ambitions, which saw Poland as the leader of the so-called Intermarium or Three Seas Initiative, aspiring to a more prominent leadership role within Europe and as a preferred ally of the United States. Regardless of whether it was a good idea (which I don't believe it was), there was some pretense of striving for independence, autonomy, and the opportunity to become a regional leader.
Different government, same non-politics
In this regard, Law and Justice's politicians have been as submissive to the US (does anyone still remember the pathetic idea of “Fort Trump?”) as the current administration is to Germany, but their grandstanding has created the impression of a patriotic upheaval in Polish politics. Now even the dramatics have faded. The Polish government recognizes that it exists solely to serve the interests of Brussels and Berlin.
Drawing a historical parallel, the American-Russian analyst
has observed that Poland's current position in relation to Germany is similar to that of fascist Italy in relation to the Third Reich. In this analogy, Poland, like Italy at the time, is viewed as a junior partner tasked with relieving Berlin of the burden of managing parts of the continent. While Italy's sphere of influence under German acquiescence was in Southeast Europe, Poland's sphere of influence under this new arrangement is still in Central Europe.This development casts a rather bleak picture of Poland's geopolitical status.
The “military Schengen” concept refers to an initiative aimed at enabling the rapid and seamless movement of military personnel and equipment across national borders within the European Union, analogous to the Schengen Area's provisions for passport-free travel among participating countries. This initiative seeks to streamline legal procedures and remove logistical barriers, thereby allegedly enhancing the readiness and responsiveness of NATO and EU military forces. NATO logistics chief Lieutenant-General Alexander Sollfrank floated this idea first.